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What to Watch for the Week of July 12th, 2021

I have a feeling this week is going to be another good week for the major indices and tech. I do believe most inflation fears are priced in, have been for some time, and for the most part this is an ordinary summer. The 10 year bond has dropped right around 1.35% which will indicate what sectors we should be investing in. It seems like the lower it goes, the better tech and growth do. Traditionally cheaper money benefits these companies that carry a lot of paper. I'm not expecting any major changes on this front. Yet, I am getting ready to take profits on longer term positions and move somethings around in preparation for a bigger dip in September or August that I've been writing about for some time now.


I added a lot of alerts and adjusted the $BIDU alert that triggered late Friday. If $BIDU continues an upward push, through the support, I'll pick up some calls a couple months out.

I do think that $AAPL will pull back, unfortunately for my LEAPS, however if it does getting into another position closer to the 180 MA is beneficial. There is no real guarantee that AAPL will recede all the way back down, giving up all the gains from the last couple weeks, however September is usually a horrible month for AAPL. In case, I will be prepared.

Next on the list of new alerts is $ROKU. I am not that bullish on ROKU and agree with Morgan Stanley giving it a sell rating. If it does rise up to the resistance trend line, it will be almost all time high. I like puts at this point.

MSFT, like AAPL, has ran up a great bit the last few weeks. Currently most indicators are showing levels of over bought. I don't want to buy puts or short MSFT, but if it does pull back toward the support, which it has bounce many times before, I'm a buyer.

$X is an interesting play that I would consider pretty safe. Of course everyone has heard of lumber and the inflation that is kicking up prices. Housing prices are skyrocketing around the country and possible rents will be too. If X can pull back to the 180 MA I believe that is a very good level of support to buy at.

ArcelorMittal, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates steel manufacturing and mining facilities in Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Africa. This is another steel and mining play for me. Over the past 10 years August has been the worst month of the year for $MT. I'll wait for a dip and hopefully buy mid to long term calls around the strong support, and if that breaks maybe the 180ma.

Vertiv Holdings Co, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and services critical digital infrastructure technologies and life cycle services for data centers, communication networks, and commercial and industrial environments in the Americas, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. $VRT is essentially a data center and tech infrastructure play that I believe is overbought currently. VRT seems to be riding up towards the key resistance that it cant seem to cross, dating back to last year, 2020. I prefer puts here and take profit around the 50ma.

$AI is a company that, you guessed it, develops AI products. I think the ticker is really, really cool, but that's about it. I believe most of the hype probably comes from that and we can see that it sold off enormously earlier this year. Once it is up to the resistance, let's play puts back down to the big volume shelf that is providing support.

$TNA is a leveraged 3X ETF that follows the Russell 2000 small cap index. Small caps are more risky that large caps, of course, but usually out perform them as well. I would like to add this to my portfolio, most likely, in September to set up for a run into the holiday months. Shares are fine with me since it is leveraged.

$COIN is my favorite BTC/Crypto stock play. It is the most reliable and regulated crypto exchange in the US. I think all the institutional investors will be using COIN for crypto exposure. I also don't think that the stock price should follow that of BTC. Even if BTC is down for the month, there is still selling volume taking place on Coinbase, there fore incoming revenue. Overall, I like this stock. If it pulls back to the MA, I think its a good enty and addition to your portfolio if you want crypto exposure.

If you are like me and waiting of a bigger pull back/correction before situating your portfolio for a bigger run toward the end of 2021, I'll be taking profits in some of my positions and needing a place to park the money in the interim. I've identified a few that could be good for this. First is VTV, Vanguard Value ETF. It is a ETF that is focused on Value stock play and has a Dividend yield of more than 2%. It is usually considered a 'safe' place to park money. Some top holdings include, BERK, JPM, XOM, JNJ, UNH, and PG.

Another one is SCHD, also has a Dividend yield of over 2%. Some of Schwab Div Yields top holdings are MRK, TXN, HD, PEP, and VZ.

Another interesting addition to your portfolio could be XHB. It is a homebuilders ETF. There has been huge demand for new SF homes in the US, and XHB and NAIL have done very well this year with the inflation trade. I don't expect demand to considerably change anytime soon. I always buy on support, so patience is key until XHB pulls back a little bit more.

DIS just released Black Widow and did very very well this weekend. Overall I like what the company is doing with Disney+ and in Shanghai they are raising the ticket prices for the newest Disney theme park. Be careful when buying this for two reasons. One, a lot of good news could already be priced in - and probably is. Two, August through October have been horrible months for DIS over the past 10 years. If you are a DIS bull, buying on the 180MA is your best bet for now.


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Current Weekly Positions

$NAIL -6.4% (Ongoing Swing Trade)

$DIDI +$550 Sell $10.5p (+13%) (Ongoing)


Make sure you are following along with our book study YouTube series on "Margin of Safety" by Seth Klarman. Check it out on my Channel! If you need a free PDF copy of the book, please email me.


Disclaimer: The comments opinions and analysis expressed herein are for informational and educational purpose only and should not be considered as individual advice or recommendations. is not responsible or liable in any way for opinions expressed here. This is not meant to be financial advice as we are not a licensed financial advisor.

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