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What to Watch for the Week of August 16th, 2021

Late Friday we had the $MS alert go off. I'll be watching for a possible entry and a confirmation early Monday. I think it is about time for a cool off in a lot of different industries, especially the financial sector. I'm still liking puts down to the 20/50MA.

I'm not going to be adding more alerts at this time. I'll slowly add some in next week after we can take the temperature of the markets. We don't want a bunch going off if the markets are pulling back 5%.

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Retail sales are in focus this week, with the Commerce Department's monthly retail sales report and earnings results from two of the country's largest big box retailers all on deck.


Tuesday's report from the Commerce Department is expected to show that retail sales dropped in July compared to June, with consumer spending pulling back as concerns over the Delta variant increased and the impacts of government-issued stimulus checks earlier this year waned.


Consensus economists expect to see a 0.2% drop in retail sales month-on-month following June's 0.6% gain. This would be the first monthly drop since May, though it would still leave retail sales up markedly from last year's pandemic-depressed levels. Retail sales have risen in four of the past six months, with notable surges coming in January and March in the wake of the distribution of stimulus checks.


One of the main reasons for July's weakness was due to a slowdown in online retail sales, which we believe owes in large part to the timing of Prime Day promotions this year," Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note Friday. "Historically, Prime Day is in mid-July but this year was pulled forward to June. Since the seasonal factors are set based on a gain in July, the data will be adjusted lower on a [seasonally adjusted] basis for online spending."

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