We are officially in October and it is proving to be rather turbulent. Coming off of one of the worst days all year, the major indices did rebound and take back some of the losses. Today is a write up where I go through all the old alerts, push a reset, and create many new ones.
It was no surprise that we the S&P had its first red month all year last month. The question is will our portfolios keep being drug down by inflation and debt ceiling woes. If you are not already, now is the time to dollar cost average on your long term positions, and pick yourself out some new mid term positions that you think will perform well in the winter months.
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First let's take a look at some of my favorites.
TQQQ has given up a lot of ground since it's all time high on September 7th. It is now approaching the 180MA, and the RSI is really low. It could be a great time to average into this position. If you prefer options, a bounce of the 180 alerts has been set.
UPRO is not as bad as TQQQ, and that is quite normal according to Trend Spider's seasonality. Usually this time of year, the Nasdaq does worse out of all the indices. Now we see that tech is getting hammered. I'd also DCA into this one.
UDOW is probably a great pick up right now for your buy and hold portfolio. It is riding along the 180MA, and if you can get an entry there, start to DCA.
SOXL is notorious in our community for money printing swings. I'd say it might have bottomed out of now. There seems to be a 50/50 chance over the past decade that SOXL is up/down in October. Since it is already down, I'd say grab some, and continue to as long as it is going down. Red day buy; green day hold. Let it run until mid November. Hope you are paying attention :D
CRO, the native Crypto.com token and one of my favorites right now has made a wonderful recovery bounce off of the 180MA. It is now back at 18 cents. Don't sleep on this one. They are now the sponsors of the UFC and the Philadelphia 76ers. I think this is a 10x play. I think the right play here is buy what you can afford: $400, $4000 or $40000. Stake those in their app (for up to 14%apy), since it is a long term play anyways we don't need to use this money. After, you will unlock their metal Visa card. My recommendation is run all your monthly expenses through it and you'll be getting 2-5% back in CRO which you continue holding.
BTC has made a huge recovery this week, and if you are already diversified with BTC exposure congratulate yourself. If not, maybe its time to start considering it. If traditional equity markets are not doing well, money sometimes flows to crypto - and vice versa.
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A WMT opportunity found by my VIP Discord members. First of all, the seasonality improves a lot in November and the RSI looks way to over sold. I like a bounce off of the the lower support of a paralell channel that it seems to be trading in. This could be a good chance for some EOY calls either now, or wait for bounce.
XHB, a homebuilders ETF, LEAPS look ripe for the picking. This would be a long term position with exposure to the US new homes sector, which I don't think will slow down any time soon.
Here is an interesting opportunity for some puts on CRM I believe to have found. We are close to all time high, and the seasonality starts to suck going into December. I can't really say the exact point where we buy the puts, but I think maybe around $280. We can even buy vertical spreads for $270/$260 with a December expiration.
NKE has also taken a beating and will probably have decent holiday sales as always. Actually, this alert was already set and expired before it triggered. It is basically riding along the 180MA and the YTD VWAP. Could be a good pick up now, or wait for a confirmation bounce.
Same with my HD alert. It triggered last week but I was on vacation and missed it. If you bought, you'd be making money. I'll be resetting the alerts for a VWAP bounce and trying again.
I'm still liking these SPOT puts as I don't believe in the long term growth of this company. It seems like the resistance drawn out is true and is holding. If continues, there is an opportunity to arb calls and puts between the resistance and glass bottom (yellow).
Still continue to play DIS on its yoyo like bounce on the glass bottom. Usually DIS's seasonality improves in the winter months, especially in November. I still like EOY calls, probably taking profit in November.
It is interesting that this time, when BTC ran, EBON didn't. One of my highest conviction plays, I'll wait for the bounce down from the 50MA as usual. EBON is a crap company, with crap products, that industry insiders joke about.
MCB is a tricky play, but, like I thought, it is holding resistance. I think its a matter of time before it pulls back. If we see it break the resistance, then I'll cut. Go small here.
SBUX is around major supports and has somewhat of a nice volume shelf propping it up. Seasonality is good for October and November as cold caffeine addicted shoppers go out and need warm pick-me-uppers. I like calls off of the volume shelf expiring EOY and taking profits possibly in November.
Lastly for today, I still like T puts off of the 50MA. Another company that I don't believe in long term growth; this is a good opportunity to continue the ride down. I would keep positions small and take profits quick, although it seems that there is more than a 50% chance that month over month is negative.
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