The S&P made all time highs briefly before falling on the first day of the Q3. Both the Nasdaq and Dow also closed out Thursday's session higher. No alerts triggered today, but I added a couple more that I am watching.
On Friday, investors will receive the U.S. Labor Department's June jobs report, the central economic data point coming out this week. The print is expected to show an acceleration in hiring, with non-farm payrolls anticipated to have risen by 720,000 for a sixth straight monthly gain. The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 5.6%, or a new pandemic-era low.
Of course, markets and institutional investors are trying to predict what everyone will do next. Buy or Sell? The jobs report is, according to analysts, "give markets a suggestion as to the timing of the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy move". No matter how many times the Feds say they won't adjust monetary policy until at least 2022, these "analysts" are still using this as a key talking point.
With the markets at or near all time highs and some major indicators are about to tip over to bearish, I'm expecting we will get a pull back relatively soon, if not by September for sure.
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Let's review some graphs and seasonality to prove my last point: Tech sector, Energy sector, Financial sector and semiconductors. In the last 10 years, August and September have traditionally been months where these sectors declined.
I will be taking everything with caution going into this summer. There is still room for upside, for example tech and finance best month is July. However, I wouldn't want to get stuck in a big position going into the down months. Remember, past performance doesn't guarantee future results, this is merely something to consider - especially if you are waiting for an opportunity to sell long term holdings or rebalance.
CVX Looks like is jumping off of this support more than one time in the past couple of months. Next time it does, I'd like to get some calls for $110, a couple months out in expiration. Don't get stuck holding these as August has been very bad for CVX over the past 10 years, according to Trend Spider.
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GOOG has been having a great first half and hasn't one time fallen below its 50 day Moving Average. If there comes a point where it bounces on it, I like vertical spreads up to $2600. But again, like the previous pick, don't get stuck holding to long into August. This one will be expensive so tread carefully if you are working with a smaller account.
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