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Journey to $1 Million, December 1st, 2021

December is here, and I am expecting a pull back some point this month. Maybe the time is upon us and while indices are at all time highs, it could be right to take some profits and re-organize your long term portfolio if you haven't already.


Markets dropped today after the Powell tapering comments.


"At this point the economy is very strong and inflation pressures are high, and it is therefore appropriate, in my view, to consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases, which we announced at the November meeting, perhaps a few months sooner," Powell said. "I expect we will discuss that at our upcoming meeting."


Considering the holidays are coming up soon and investors typically take profits around this time, it is no surprise to me that there is some selling going around.

"Information is coming rapidly, it's evolving in real-time. You can understand why investors [last week] were taking a little bit of a pause, particularly given the liquidity situation we had going into the U.S. holiday season," Vivek Paul, BlackRock investment institution U.K. chief investment strategist.


Overall, I think all is fine. My personal viewpoint is that this is a healthy correction and the Omicron was most likely the first catalyst to break the green streaks. You can't expect markets never to go down, contrary to what some people think.

 

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Unfortunately I'm not a wizard. However, I do think we are likely to see flat trading for a while, maybe up until the next announcement. The longer it trades flat, the harder the breakout; either up or down. If down, I think it goes straight to the 180MA.


 

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Alerts


Today we had 3 alerts trigger that we have been waiting for for some time now.


I've been waiting patiently for GS to touch the 180MA. Now that it has, I like calls up to $400 at least, especially since the seasonality improves in December. Let's see if it is the same this year. There isn't all that risk in this one, just make sure you have plenty of time on your option contract, really all you can afford.


YUM also triggered once it hit the 180MA today. The seasonality in December makes me a little more nervous, however if we do get in this tomorrow, it would be a 1 or two week position. It is entirely possible YUM continues downward toward the YTD VWAP. Nevertheless, pick up a cheap position and see if the bullish channel, between upper trend resistance and lower 180MA, continues.


Similar story with CVS. It has touched the 50MA today after falling more than 2%. One would be led to believe that during the winter, especially another Covid winter, that pharmacies stand to increase revenue. I think tomorrow if CVS shows us that it is bouncing off the MA, we buy $90/$95 calls depending on your budget.


 

New Alerts


NAIL has never done well in December, and yesterday average American home price growth slowed in September. I think this will be an excellent pick up, but the question remains where is entry. I'm considering either the 50 or the 180. The average decline over the past 6 years in December is 8%. Considering that, it might be the 50MA when it catches up to the price a little more.

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Disclaimer: The comments opinions and analysis expressed herein are for informational and educational purpose only and should not be considered as individual advice or recommendations. Prostockadvice.com is not responsible or liable in any way for opinions expressed here. This is not meant to be financial advice as we are not a licensed financial advisor.


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