The non-farm payroll jobs and unemployment came out today, and it was much better than expected. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday morning showed 943,000 non-farm payroll gains last month, with the unemployment rate falling to 5.4%. This could potentially be pointing towards a taper from the Fed this year. Of course, when the interest rates fall growth won't do well. They carry the most paper, relatively speaking, and interest rates going up will affect them the most. At least that is the theory, and the news media will overreact accordingly as they always do.
I think most likely it is an overreaction and probably by the point the Fed starts thinking of talking about tapering, and then thinks more about starting to consider to talk about tapering, then actually starts talking about it for some more months, and finally starts the tapering process little by little, probably most of the downward movement will be priced in.
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Major US indices were mixed today, but overall its been a good 3 months for me as I'm at 22%, 35% YTD, and 150%+ TTM.
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Positions this Week
$BTI +8% (Calls; Leaps)
$MA +13.5% (Calls)
$ETSY -10% (Calls) - Got hammered yesterday, but getting positioned now could have upside.
$LOGI -12% (Calls) - Cut as LOGI fell below support. Will reevaluate on Monday.
$TSM +6.5% (Calls) - Closed for profit, as TSM started pulling back; didn't want to hold over the weekend.
$AXP +29.75% (Calls) - Took about 30% profit.
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Overall, this week was a good week for my options trading. I am still keeping above a 70% success rate (closer to 80%), and managing risk by diversifying the positions across different industries and sectors.
I had to cut the LOGI unfortunately as it dipped below the support. However, I'll take a look Monday to see if there is still value to be had.
The worst position for the week was the ABNB, although when the alert fired, I indicated go small as it my push toward upper resistance (which it is). Nevertheless, it will be an even better entry when ABNB gets to $160 levels.
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I've been wanting to get into some discounted AMZN LEAPS, however my limit order for the $4000/$4200 is not getting filled due to the fact that I am being a cheap-o. I keep putting the limit at $40. It is no rush since its a LEAP after all, but I'll wait until next week to continue monitoring this. The contract being referred to has a maximum profit potential of $15k+ if AMZN hits $4200 540 day later. More or less 30% which AMZN does and can do.
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Disclaimer: The comments opinions and analysis expressed herein are for informational and educational purpose only and should not be considered as individual advice or recommendations. Prostockadvice.com is not responsible or liable in any way for opinions expressed here. This is not meant to be financial advice as we are not a licensed financial advisor.